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14 This article also projects the number and type of U.S. Though consumer behavior during and after the recession has been documented in various papers, 13 the relationship between consumption and employment has not yet been quantified in the literature. employment related to each final demand component in the latest recession (2007–2009) and during the recovery years through 2012, with a focus on consumer spending. Using an input–output methodology, this article estimates U.S. 10 Many have also blamed sluggish consumer spending: as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in 2011, “Consumer behavior has both reflected and contributed to the slow pace of recovery.” 11 Others made stark statements, such as, “Don't expect consumer spending to be the engine of economic growth it once was.” 12 9 Several structural and cyclical factors have been proposed as causes, including the nature of the financial crisis, dependency of the economy on services, economic and policy uncertainty, extended unemployment insurance, and high long-term unemployment rates. With persistently high unemployment rates, the weak revival in job growth has been one of the most debated aspects of the recent recession. 7Households cut spending, shed outstanding debt, and increased their rate of personal savings in response to reductions in income, wealth, confidence, and credit access. 6 Consumer spending experienced the most severe decline since World War II.
Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2022 projected.ĭuring the “Great Recession,” which took place from late-2007 through mid-2009, the economy steeply contracted and nearly 8.7 million jobs were lost. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and World Bank for 1960–2012, U.S. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of GDP, 1960–20 projected Date